And in today’s bad news.
‘Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity… Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.’ Note: This is a pre-pub, non-peer-reviewed report.
Polymorphisms in ACE2 don’t seem to influence ARDS.
‘We therefore conclude that although ACE2 serves functionally as the receptor for entry of the SARS coronavirus into human host cells, the evidence provided by this study does not support an association between its common genetic variants and SARS susceptibility or outcome. Despite its X-chromosome location, poor outcomes in male SARS patients do not appear to be related to genetic variants of ACE2.’
Eyes are on Singapore.
Singapore appears to have sustained community transmission of coronavirus and may be 3-4 weeks ahead of what could unfold in U.S. Both nations should have similar number of imported cases, but Singapore density will make spread manifest more quickly. It’s deeply concerning that of the cases identified in Singapore, as of Sunday (02/09/2020) night, six patients are in intensive care. These are patients of different ages, and not just the older ones. Singapore has sustained community transmission despite most capable government on planet, best healthcare system on planet, and warm weather (high 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit this week).Singapore raised its ‘Disease Outbreak Response System Condition’ to orange last week – which means the disease is severe and spreads easily from person to person.
How to wash your hands.
Use warm water, a good soap and a rotational movement, sort of like when a movie villain is happy about something. My old microbiology teacher used to tell us to wash long enough to sing “Happy Birthday’ to ourselves twice.
Keep toilet covers down.
During the SARS crisis #SARS in Hong Kong many people in a condo tower got infected. Turned out plumbing caused toilets to expel ‘air’ back into apartments, cross-contaminating one after another.